1998 Governor · PA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,812 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 21% · Republican 62%
R+41.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.03% · Republican 57.42%
R+26.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 21 − 62 = -41.00
- Actual margin = 31.033 − 57.417 = -26.384
- Signed miss = -41.00 − (-26.384) = -14.616
- Absolute miss = |-14.616| = 14.616
The poll overstated the Republican by 14.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54409, race ID 1459 (538 database).