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1998 Governor · RI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.13% · Republican 50.97%

R+8.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.130 − 50.965 = -8.835
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-8.835) = 7.835
  4. Absolute miss = |7.835| = 7.835

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54415, race ID 1460 (538 database).