1998 Governor · TX
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 25% · Republican 69%
R+44.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.18% · Republican 68.24%
R+37.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 25 − 69 = -44.00
- Actual margin = 31.182 − 68.239 = -37.057
- Signed miss = -44.00 − (-37.057) = -6.943
- Absolute miss = |-6.943| = 6.943
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54427, race ID 1464 (538 database).