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1998 Governor · TX

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 3,579 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 73%

R+48.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.18% · Republican 68.24%

R+37.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 73 = -48.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.182 − 68.239 = -37.057
  3. Signed miss = -48.00 − (-37.057) = -10.943
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.943| = 10.943

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54428, race ID 1464 (538 database).