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1998 Governor · WI

Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 1998-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 67%

R+41.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.70% · Republican 59.66%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 67 = -41.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.699 − 59.664 = -20.965
  3. Signed miss = -41.00 − (-20.965) = -20.034
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.034| = 20.034

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54440, race ID 1466 (538 database).