2000 Governor · DE
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 41%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.24% · Republican 39.74%
D+19.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 59.244 − 39.745 = 19.499
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (19.499) = -5.499
- Absolute miss = |-5.499| = 5.499
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54442, race ID 1419 (538 database).