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2000 President · DE

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.98% · Republican 41.92%

D+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.978 − 41.916 = 13.062
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (13.062) = -9.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.061| = 9.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54442, race ID 814 (538 database).