2000 Senate · IN
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 10% · Republican 69%
R+59.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.85% · Republican 66.56%
R+34.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 10 − 69 = -59.00
- Actual margin = 31.851 − 66.564 = -34.713
- Signed miss = -59.00 − (-34.713) = -24.287
- Absolute miss = |-24.287| = 24.287
The poll overstated the Republican by 24.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54450, race ID 1690 (538 database).