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2000 President · IN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 723 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 52%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.01% · Republican 56.65%

R+15.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 52 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.012 − 56.647 = -15.635
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-15.635) = -3.365
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.365| = 3.365

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54452, race ID 821 (538 database).