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2000 President · MO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 1,072 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.339) = -0.661
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.661| = 0.661

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54458, race ID 830 (538 database).