2000 President · MO
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,833 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%
R+3.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.339) = 0.339
- Absolute miss = |0.339| = 0.339
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54469, race ID 830 (538 database).