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2000 Senate · MT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 968 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.24% · Republican 50.55%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.237 − 50.554 = -3.317
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-3.317) = -6.683
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.683| = 6.683

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54474, race ID 1698 (538 database).