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2000 President · NC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 1,163 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.15% · Republican 55.96%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.146 − 55.958 = -12.812
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-12.812) = 2.812
  4. Absolute miss = |2.812| = 2.812

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54485, race ID 833 (538 database).