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2000 Governor · NH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 1,338 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.76%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.736 − 43.759 = 4.977
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.977) = 0.023
  4. Absolute miss = |0.023| = 0.023

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54500, race ID 1425 (538 database).