Skip to content

2000 President · NH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 1,338 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 46%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.80% · Republican 48.07%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 46 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.803 − 48.070 = -1.267
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-1.267) = -6.733
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.733| = 6.733

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54500, race ID 836 (538 database).