Skip to content

2000 President · NH

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.80% · Republican 48.07%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.803 − 48.070 = -1.267
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.267) = 3.267
  4. Absolute miss = |3.267| = 3.267

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54504, race ID 836 (538 database).