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2000 Governor · VT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 39%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.45% · Republican 37.95%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.451 − 37.945 = 12.506
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.506) = -3.505
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.505| = 3.505

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54516, race ID 1427 (538 database).