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2000 President · VT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 39%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.63% · Republican 40.70%

D+9.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 39 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.635 − 40.697 = 9.938
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (9.938) = -3.938
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.938| = 3.938

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54518, race ID 852 (538 database).