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2000 Governor · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.38% · Republican 39.68%

D+18.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.383 − 39.681 = 18.702
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.702) = -3.702
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.702| = 3.702

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54524, race ID 1428 (538 database).