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2000 Senate · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.73% · Republican 48.64%

D+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.730 − 48.640 = 0.090
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.090) = -2.091
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.091| = 2.091

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54524, race ID 1713 (538 database).