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2000 President · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.16% · Republican 44.58%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.158 − 44.579 = 5.579
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.579) = -3.580
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.580| = 3.580

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54524, race ID 853 (538 database).