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2000 Governor · WV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 1,036 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 41%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.12% · Republican 47.21%

D+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 41 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.123 − 47.207 = 2.916
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.916) = 3.084
  4. Absolute miss = |3.084| = 3.084

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54529, race ID 1429 (538 database).