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2000 President · WV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,066 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 45%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.59% · Republican 51.91%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.593 − 51.915 = -6.322
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-6.322) = 3.323
  4. Absolute miss = |3.323| = 3.323

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54530, race ID 855 (538 database).