2002 Governor · CA
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 563 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 36%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 42.40%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 36 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 47.262 − 42.398 = 4.864
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (4.864) = 6.135
- Absolute miss = |6.135| = 6.135
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54592, race ID 1385 (538 database).