2002 Governor · CA
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 39%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 42.40%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 39 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.262 − 42.398 = 4.864
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.864) = -1.865
- Absolute miss = |-1.865| = 1.865
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54596, race ID 1385 (538 database).