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2002 Governor · CT

University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2002-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 608 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 49%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.89% · Republican 56.10%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 49 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.889 − 56.105 = -12.216
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-12.216) = -2.784
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.784| = 2.784

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54626, race ID 1387 (538 database).