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2002 Governor · CT

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2002-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 637 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 55%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.89% · Republican 56.10%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 55 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.889 − 56.105 = -12.216
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-12.216) = -4.784
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.784| = 4.784

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54627, race ID 1387 (538 database).