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2002 Governor · IL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 535 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.19% · Republican 45.07%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.193 − 45.069 = 7.124
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (7.124) = 4.877
  4. Absolute miss = |4.877| = 4.877

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54694, race ID 1392 (538 database).