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2002 Governor · IL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 36%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.19% · Republican 45.07%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 36 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.193 − 45.069 = 7.124
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (7.124) = 7.877
  4. Absolute miss = |7.877| = 7.877

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54696, race ID 1392 (538 database).