2002 Governor · IL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 535 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.19% · Republican 45.07%
D+7.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 52.193 − 45.069 = 7.124
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (7.124) = 6.877
- Absolute miss = |6.877| = 6.877
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54700, race ID 1392 (538 database).