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2002 Governor · KS

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 704 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 45.09%

D+7.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.873 − 45.092 = 7.781
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (7.781) = -0.781
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.781| = 0.781

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54712, race ID 1394 (538 database).