Skip to content

2002 Governor · MA

KRC Research · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 40%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.94% · Republican 49.77%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 40 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.936 − 49.767 = -4.831
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.831) = 2.831
  4. Absolute miss = |2.831| = 2.831

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54734, race ID 1397 (538 database).