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2002 Governor · MD

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 797 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.67% · Republican 51.55%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.675 − 51.553 = -3.878
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-3.878) = -1.122
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.122| = 1.122

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54755, race ID 1396 (538 database).