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2002 Governor · ME

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 36%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.15% · Republican 41.47%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 36 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.146 − 41.469 = 5.677
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.677) = 4.322
  4. Absolute miss = |4.322| = 4.322

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54764, race ID 1395 (538 database).