2002 House · ME-2
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 240 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 38%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.01% · Republican 47.99%
D+4.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 38 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 52.007 − 47.993 = 4.014
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (4.014) = 5.987
- Absolute miss = |5.987| = 5.987
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54765, race ID 2897 (538 database).