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2002 Governor · MI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 730 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.42% · Republican 47.40%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.417 − 47.398 = 4.019
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (4.019) = 8.981
  4. Absolute miss = |8.981| = 8.981

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54781, race ID 1398 (538 database).