2002 House · NV-3
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 305 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 45%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.24% · Republican 56.08%
R+18.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 45 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 37.241 − 56.079 = -18.838
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-18.838) = 8.838
- Absolute miss = |8.838| = 8.838
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54823, race ID 2958 (538 database).