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2002 Governor · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2002-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,210 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 44%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.77% · Republican 44.46%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 44 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.773 − 44.456 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-13.683) = -5.317
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.317| = 5.317

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54854, race ID 1404 (538 database).