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2002 Governor · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 471 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 54%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.31% · Republican 57.76%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 54 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.307 − 57.758 = -19.451
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-19.451) = 3.451
  4. Absolute miss = |3.451| = 3.451

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54869, race ID 1405 (538 database).