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2002 Governor · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 710 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 43%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.27% · Republican 42.61%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 43 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.273 − 42.610 = 0.663
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.663) = -5.663
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.663| = 5.663

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54879, race ID 1406 (538 database).