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2002 Governor · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 723 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 37%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.27% · Republican 42.61%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 37 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.273 − 42.610 = 0.663
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.663) = 1.337
  4. Absolute miss = |1.337| = 1.337

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54881, race ID 1406 (538 database).