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2002 Governor · OK

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 710 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 38%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.27% · Republican 42.61%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 38 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.273 − 42.610 = 0.663
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.663) = 3.337
  4. Absolute miss = |3.337| = 3.337

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54882, race ID 1406 (538 database).