2002 Governor · PA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2002-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 636 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 35%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.41% · Republican 44.37%
D+9.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 35 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 53.413 − 44.372 = 9.041
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (9.041) = 9.960
- Absolute miss = |9.960| = 9.960
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54910, race ID 1408 (538 database).