2002 Governor · PA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 805 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 36%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.41% · Republican 44.37%
D+9.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 53.413 − 44.372 = 9.041
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (9.041) = 7.960
- Absolute miss = |7.960| = 7.960
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54914, race ID 1408 (538 database).