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2002 House · RI-1

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 250 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 29%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.88% · Republican 37.31%

D+22.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 29 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.878 − 37.308 = 22.570
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (22.570) = -1.570
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.570| = 1.570

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54920, race ID 3067 (538 database).