Skip to content

2002 Governor · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 726 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.65% · Republican 47.59%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.647 − 47.594 = 3.053
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.053) = 0.946
  4. Absolute miss = |0.946| = 0.946

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54950, race ID 1412 (538 database).