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2002 Governor · WI

Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 36%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.09% · Republican 41.39%

D+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 36 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.091 − 41.388 = 3.703
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.703) = -1.703
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.703| = 1.703

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54996, race ID 1415 (538 database).