2004 Governor · UT
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 1,228 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 54%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.34% · Republican 57.74%
R+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 54 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 41.345 − 57.741 = -16.396
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-16.396) = 0.395
- Absolute miss = |0.395| = 0.395
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55068, race ID 1372 (538 database).