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2004 President · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 1,228 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 69%

R+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.00% · Republican 71.54%

R+45.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 69 = -45.00
  2. Actual margin = 25.996 − 71.536 = -45.540
  3. Signed miss = -45.00 − (-45.540) = 0.540
  4. Absolute miss = |0.540| = 0.540

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55068, race ID 799 (538 database).