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2006 Governor · AK

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.97% · Republican 48.33%

R+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.973 − 48.330 = -7.357
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.357) = 6.357
  4. Absolute miss = |6.357| = 6.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 55099, race ID 1327 (538 database).